The IEEFA report highlights that the transition is already yielding results, with heat pumps, solar, and wind installations lowering gas demand by 8.8 billion cubic meters in 2024. To sustain this momentum, the EU must install 4 million heat pumps, 75 gigawatts of solar, and 22 gigawatts of wind capacity annually through 2030. Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst for the institute, noted that consistent expansion would insulate the continent from external energy shocks and diminish reliance on volatile pipeline and LNG imports.
EU Renewable Targets Could Cut Gas Demand by One Quarter by 2030
Meeting aggressive targets for heat pump deployment and renewable capacity would reduce European natural gas demand by 25% by 2030. According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, this reduction represents double the total volume of LNG the bloc currently imports from Qatar.
Despite these projections, the bloc remains off track to reach its 42.5% renewable energy target by 2030. Eurostat data indicates that renewables accounted for 26.2% of final energy consumption last year, necessitating a tripling of the current annual growth rate to meet the 2030 mandate. This gap persists as Europe faces its second-lowest gas storage levels in 15 years, exacerbated by heightened competition for spot supplies with Asian markets and rising prices linked to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
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