Oil Markets Plummet on Premature Hopes for Iran Deal

West Texas Intermediate dropped 5.85% to $75.64 per barrel, while Brent crude fell to $79.16, hitting three-week lows. The sell-off followed statements from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who suggested a breakthrough in talks mediated by Oman. President Donald Trump described a deal to reopen the strait and address Iranian nuclear capabilities as imminent.

Tehran’s position remains at odds with this narrative. Iranian officials deny direct engagement with Washington, insisting on mediator-led discussions and demanding authority over regional shipping traffic. This friction is underscored by the reality on the water: vessel traffic through Hormuz has not increased, and a cargo ship was recently struck near Oman, highlighting the persistent volatility in the region.

Since the conflict began in February, Saudi Aramco estimates a global supply loss exceeding 2.6 billion barrels. Goldman Sachs analysts previously pegged Brent between $80 and $90, a range the market has now breached downward. With physical flows remaining impaired despite the diplomatic noise, traders appear to have priced in a resolution that lacks both a signature and a clear path to implementation.