The bearish outlook is compounded by mounting operational instability among major physical traders. Vitol Group and Cargill Inc. have severed ties with Radiant World following allegations of fraudulent invoicing, a development that has prompted financial institutions like Intesa Sanpaolo and Jefferies Financial Group to scrutinize their exposure to the firm. Radiant World has dismissed the claims as categorically untrue, yet the controversy has heightened volatility in an already fragile trading environment.
Iron Ore Slumps to Yearly Low Amid Chinese Demand Crisis
Benchmark iron ore futures in Singapore tumbled to $93.65 a ton, marking an intraday low not seen in twelve months. The sharp decline reflects a deepening structural imbalance, as China’s persistent construction sector slowdown fails to absorb a consistent surge in global supply, leaving the market increasingly vulnerable.
UBS analyst Myles Allsop warns that the fundamental outlook remains bleak, with inventories rising materially over the past year. Projections suggest prices will average roughly $100 per ton in 2026 before sliding toward $90 by 2027. Beyond current supply gluts, long-term demand faces a potential shift as steel scrap increasingly replaces iron ore, particularly if Chinese emissions trading schemes tighten. With steel margins thinning and freight costs expected to moderate, the market is bracing for a sustained period of price compression.
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