The Illusion of a Breakthrough in US-China LNG Trade

The 15% tariff imposed in early 2025 effectively erased American LNG from China's import ledger, dropping shipments from 64 vessels in 2024 to zero. Chinese buyers have instead diversified, turning to Australia, Russia, and Canada to fill the void left by the collapse of Qatari supply following the March attacks on the Ras Laffan facility. Despite the headlines surrounding a new 20-year agreement between China Gas Holdings and Venture Global, the deal covers less than 1% of China’s annual imports and does not take effect until 2030.

Washington remains eager to offload surplus Gulf Coast capacity, yet Beijing’s interest is cooling. Forecasters including S&P Global and JPMorgan have slashed China's demand outlook for the 2030s, citing a domestic pivot toward renewables and piped gas. With Chinese companies already holding nearly 25 million tonnes of US offtake in long-term contracts, the current push for tariff relief appears more like a tactical negotiation than a genuine requirement for energy security. Beijing has spent the past several years building a supply network that no longer necessitates a return to the 2021 status quo.