Wall Street Analysts Clash Over Middle East Oil Flow Data

Conflicting shipping data from major financial institutions highlights a widening divide in how the market tracks oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz. While JP Morgan reports a near-total recovery to pre-war volumes, Goldman Sachs offers a significantly higher estimate, illustrating the volatility of monitoring exports in a high-risk maritime theater.

Money Talk·September 30, 2026·reads: 2,931

Wall Street Analysts Clash Over Middle East Oil Flow Data

JP Morgan analysts place September oil flows at 17.5 million barrels daily, reaching 98% of pre-war levels. The bank attributes this rebound to Saudi Arabia, which has pushed shipments through the Strait of Hormuz back to late-June highs of nearly 13 million barrels per day. The team warns that these figures reflect an industry adapting to sustained danger rather than an actual improvement in regional security.

Goldman Sachs paints a more aggressive picture, calculating daily outflows from the Persian Gulf at 23.3 million barrels. Their model accounts for tankers operating in "dark mode" to evade detection, a factor that likely explains the discrepancy with lower industry estimates. This divergence is further complicated by other institutional voices: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggests a baseline of 17 million barrels, while TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné maintains a more conservative calculation of 10 million barrels daily. Such starkly different assessments underscore the difficulty of verifying transit data as regional producers shift export strategies.