Shipping data from LSEG and Kpler reveals that while some Qatari and UAE shipments have successfully navigated the passage, the movement is insufficient to stabilize global balances. Carriers increasingly rely on dark mode to bypass surveillance, complicating efforts to monitor supply. Unlike crude oil, which continues to transit in millions of barrels daily, LNG remains constrained by the technical difficulty of ship-to-ship transfers, which are far more complex for gas than for oil.
Strait of Hormuz LNG Flows Hit Monthly High Amid Continued Stagnation
Twenty-one liquefied natural gas cargoes exited the Strait of Hormuz in September, marking the highest monthly volume since the current conflict began. Despite this uptick, the figures remain a fraction of pre-war levels, where three vessels typically traversed the vital chokepoint every single day, leaving global energy markets strained.
The persistent bottleneck has forced Qatar to extend its force majeure on deliveries to Asia and Europe through the end of November. This supply vacuum has driven regional gas prices to their highest levels since the 2022-2023 energy crisis, as buyers scramble for alternatives that avoid the volatile waterway. With the U.S.-Iran stalemate showing no sign of resolution, concerns mount regarding winter energy security for European and Asian markets, particularly if temperatures drop significantly in the coming months.
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