Middle East Tensions Push Oil Prices Higher Amid Supply Fears

West Texas Intermediate climbed to $93.78 per barrel on Monday, a 2.10% increase, while Brent crude reached $106.80. The volatility follows a weekend of regional aggression that threatens to derail the recovery of Gulf oil exports, which had reached 81% of prewar levels by September. Goldman Sachs responded to the instability by raising its December Brent forecast to $90, noting that geopolitical risks currently account for a $20 premium per barrel.

These supply concerns persist even as OPEC significantly tempered its expectations for global demand growth. Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais confirmed the group now anticipates demand growth of 400,000 barrels per day for 2026, a sharp decline from the 1.4 million barrels projected earlier this year. The International Energy Agency offers an even bleaker outlook, predicting a 2.5-million-barrel-per-day drop in consumption before a potential rebound in 2027.

Market participants are weighing these figures against U.S. political developments, specifically President Donald Trump’s announcement of increased Russian diesel supplies and a proposed energy infrastructure ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Despite these promises, skepticism remains high; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported Russian violations of the agreement on Monday. Meanwhile, major producers including Shell, Chevron, and BP are moving to restore offshore operations in the Gulf of Mexico following disruptions caused by Hurricane Isaias.