Gold Stalls as Treasury Yields Climb Toward Two-Decade Highs

December gold futures are hovering between $4,150 and $4,200 as markets brace for Wednesday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index report. The metal has shed roughly 5% of its value since early September, hampered by an 18-month high in the dollar index and bond yields that haven't been this elevated since 2002. Higher interest rates typically diminish gold’s appeal, as non-yielding assets struggle to compete with attractive government bond returns.

Despite the short-term volatility, institutional demand remains a structural floor for the metal. Data from the World Gold Council shows that physically backed gold ETFs saw $10 billion in inflows during September, with total holdings reaching a record 4,256 tonnes. Simultaneously, central banks purchased 289 tonnes in the second quarter, marking a 62% increase from the previous year as monetary authorities shift to diversify reserves away from traditional currencies.

UBS Global Wealth Management suggests that the market may have already priced in the most aggressive Federal Reserve scenarios. While analysts monitor the $4,000 to $4,030 range as critical support, the long-term outlook remains tied to U.S. fiscal sustainability and geopolitical instability. If upcoming inflation data shows signs of cooling, the current selloff may provide a tactical entry point for investors betting on a rebound toward the $4,400 mark.