By the end of this year, the United States is projected to supply two-thirds of the European Union’s LNG imports, a figure that IEEFA estimates will climb to four out of every five overseas cargoes by 2028. EU energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen recently touted this diversification as a move toward a more reliable supplier base. However, critics argue that exchanging Moscow’s pipeline gas for American maritime fuel merely swaps one geopolitical risk for another.
The EU is trading its Russian energy dependency for American leverage
The European Union is rapidly replacing its former reliance on Russian pipelines with a singular dependence on American liquefied natural gas. While officials frame this shift as a victory for energy security, the transition is creating a new, precarious vulnerability where Washington holds the keys to Europe’s industrial survival.
Evidence of this leverage is already surfacing. US ambassador to the EU Andrew Puzder suggested earlier this year that favorable access to American LNG could be revoked if the EU challenged specific bilateral trade terms. For European policymakers, this shift highlights a stark reality: replacing a hostile supplier with a strategic ally does not eliminate the danger of energy being used as a tool of political coercion.
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