Global Energy Import Reliance to Peak by 2034

The dual pressures of the conflict in Ukraine and instability near the Strait of Hormuz have tested energy systems more severely than any event since the 1970s. While infrastructure investments made after previous crises provided a buffer, the current volatility has exposed deep vulnerabilities in diesel markets. With Russian refinery strikes and Middle Eastern supply bottlenecks, diesel stocks have fallen 14% below their five-year average, pushing benchmark prices above $100 per barrel and straining logistics chains worldwide.

Governments are responding with a shift in priorities, favoring energy security over purely climate-driven policies. Nearly 100 nations have implemented price caps or fuel subsidies, yet 34 have shifted toward structural change, with electrification emerging as the primary tool for domestic stability. This transition is creating a new dependency: as countries move away from fossil fuel imports from the Persian Gulf, they are increasingly relying on Chinese-manufactured solar wafers, battery cells, and electric vehicles. China now controls 96% of global solar wafer capacity and 78% of battery cell production, effectively trading a dependence on fuel flows for a reliance on hardware stocks.

Under Rystad’s new 'Pragmatism' scenario, which balances affordability with clean energy goals, global energy import reliance is expected to drop from 40% today to 26% by 2050. Electricity has already overtaken oil as the largest carrier of useful energy, and its share of the global energy mix is projected to rise from 28% to 41% by mid-century. Despite this progress, fossil CO2 emissions are plateauing at 40 gigatonnes annually, leaving the world on a trajectory that exceeds the climate targets set by the Paris Agreement.