Russian Crude Exports Slump to Seven-Month Low

The four-week average for shipments through October 18 fell by 110,000 barrels per day, settling at 3.59 million. A three-day loading suspension at the Baltic port of Primorsk served as a primary catalyst for the downturn. While satellite imagery and tracking data suggest maintenance work at the port or its supplying pipeline caused the stoppage, operations only resumed toward the end of the week.

Broader production trends compound these export struggles. September output reached 8.64 million barrels per day—a low not seen since mid-2020 and the tenth consecutive monthly decline. Simultaneously, Ukrainian drone strikes continue to target refining capacity, including a recent hit on the Ryazan refinery that disabled a primary processing unit. Despite these challenges, Moscow has tightened the flow of information, restricting public disclosure of refinery data and shipping routes via a September 28 decree.

Revenue has mirrored the drop in volume, with the weekly value of seaborne crude exports sliding by $380 million to $2.33 billion. Even the launch of Rosneft’s Vostok Arctic project, which began commercial exports in September, provides limited relief. Current output from the site averages 150,000 barrels per day, a fraction of its original 2 million barrel target. With shipments to major buyers in China and India also retreating, the Kremlin faces a narrowing window for energy-based capital inflows.