Resource Scarcity and the AI Energy Surge

Paul Gooden, head of natural resources at Ninety One, suggests that while oil prices are elevated due to geopolitical instability, a long-term shortage remains unlikely. Despite current volatility, he maintains a bullish stance on energy and agricultural commodities, alongside precious metals. Gooden notes that while Middle East oil exports are recovering, they have yet to reach pre-conflict levels, and China’s renewed demand is putting further pressure on thinning global inventories.

The rapid expansion of AI and data centers is simultaneously creating a new, durable pillar of demand for metals like copper. George Cheveley, a portfolio manager at Ninety One, remains optimistic about copper’s trajectory despite potential tariff-related market swings. This sentiment is echoed by analysts at Julius Baer, who view structural deficits for copper as increasingly probable later this decade. Lithium is seeing a similar surge, driven by the necessity of battery storage to support AI-related electricity loads.

Agricultural markets face a distinct set of pressures. Skyrocketing nitrogen fertilizer prices, fueled by energy costs and supply disruptions, are forcing farmers to seek alternatives like potash. As the global resource squeeze tightens, the intersection of technology growth and traditional energy security continues to drive market behavior, with gold emerging as a preferred safe haven against broader economic uncertainty.