Daily output had dipped to 160,000 tons during the first half of the month, but recovered as export quotas were formalized. With domestic consumption typically falling to 140,000 tons post-harvest, Russia now holds a monthly surplus of roughly 1 million tons. President Donald Trump confirmed the arrangement on October 9, outlining an initial delivery of 300,000 tons, followed by 500,000 tons in November and a potential 1 million tons thereafter.
Russian Refineries Boost Diesel Output for U.S. Export Deal
Following a mid-October quota adjustment, Russian refineries have scaled daily diesel production to 180,000 metric tons. This production pivot supports a new supply agreement with Washington, which recently issued a six-month Treasury waiver to permit the import of Russian fuel amid rising domestic prices.
The first shipment, carried by the Malta-flagged Agioi Fanendes, departed Primorsk on October 23 and is scheduled to reach New York on November 7. While Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov promised regular deliveries, industry analysts remain skeptical regarding long-term capacity. Standard Chartered warned that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refinery infrastructure have created structural bottlenecks that will take months to repair. Consequently, any barrels redirected to the United States are effectively being diverted from existing customers in other markets, limiting the overall impact on global supply.
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