China’s November Diesel Exports Seen Falling to 800,000 Tons

The November estimate, based on Reuters calculations and trade sources, compares with 1.33 million tons exported in August and 1.8 million tons in September. Refiners have not yet finalized deals for loading in the second half of November, traders and executives familiar with this month’s plans told Reuters on Thursday.

China has adjusted fuel export policy month by month since a Middle East crisis disrupted supplies of crude and fuels early this year. Authorities and refiners prioritized domestic needs, restricting fuel exports from April through July. Beijing lifted those restrictions in mid-July, after which exports rebounded: China shipped 6.01 million tons of petroleum products in August, up 12.7% from a year earlier. Jet fuel exports reached an all-time high that month, and total fuel shipments exceeded pre-war levels.

Exports remained strong in September, then pulled back early in October during the week-long Chinese holiday before restarting around October 9. China expanded its refined-product export quota last week. The quota available for the fourth quarter now stands at 20.44 million tons, 44% higher than a year earlier, according to GL Consulting.

The expanded quota may not translate immediately into more shipments, the firm’s analysts said. Before the latest allocation, China’s November export plan was expected to decline from October; the new quota could prompt an upward revision, but the monthly plan remains under adjustment.