How Super El Niño Could Shift Coal Demand Around the World

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) project that the event could be among the most destructive climate events in 50 years. El Niño patterns usually occur every two to seven years and last nine to 12 months; the second year is often warmer than the first. A Super El Niño is defined by sea-surface temperatures at least 3.6F (2C) above the long-term average. The WMO puts the likelihood of El Niño persisting through February 2027 at nearly 100% and says it could be the strongest on record. Only three very strong or Super El Niños have been recorded since 1950; the last was in 2015-16. The WMO said Pacific Ocean temperatures in this event are already more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal and that 2027 could surpass 2024’s record heat.

India is already seeing higher coal generation. El Niño-related heat and weaker monsoon rains can reduce hydropower and wind output while increasing electricity demand for cooling. Reuters reported that India’s coal-fired generation rose 25.7% year over year in October, and its share of total generation increased to 71.7% from 66.03% in September. Hydropower generation fell 26%, its steepest decline since February 2024. At one point that month, 100 of the country’s 191 coal-fired plants had critically low fuel stocks. Earlier, the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) estimated a possible generation gap of nearly 18 TWh and said coal generation could rise enough to release an estimated 17 million tonnes of CO2.

The impact on other power systems is less direct. In China, warmer, wetter winters and increased rainfall south of the Yangtze River can lift hydropower output and cut demand for thermal coal. But heat or drought in individual river basins can reduce hydroelectricity and force utilities to use more coal and gas. Solar output may also fall: one study estimated a possible reduction of about 5% in California and as much as 10% in parts of southeastern China during the next Super El Niño. El Niño has also been linked to hydropower declines in regions including the US Pacific Northwest, southern Africa and parts of South America.

Coal supply could face pressure as well. Drought in Indonesia, the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, can lower river levels in Kalimantan, restricting barge loads and slowing deliveries to ports. In Australia, drier conditions may reduce the risk of floods damaging open-cut mines and railways, though variable weather can still disrupt export logistics. The resulting changes in coal use will depend on local weather, renewable generation and electricity demand.