India’s Road Fuel Demand Is Set to Peak in 2034

Commercial transport and conventional vehicles are expected to keep lifting gasoline and diesel consumption, the research firm said. That growth could help sustain global oil demand for longer than in China, where gasoline and diesel use has fallen this year amid higher oil prices and faster electric-vehicle adoption, BloombergNEF said.

India’s EV sales are increasing, supported by lower ownership costs, a wider choice of models and continued policy backing. But the country remains off track for most of its 2030 goals, according to BloombergNEF’s India Transition Factbook 2026, published last month. The targets call for electric vehicles to make up 80% of two- and three-wheeler sales, 70% of commercial vehicle sales and 30% of passenger vehicle sales by the end of the decade. BloombergNEF expects only the three-wheeler target to be met.

The firm said higher fuel costs linked to the conflict in the Persian Gulf could improve the economics of EVs, but additional measures would be needed to reach all the targets. BloombergNEF estimates India will require as much as $29 billion in charging-infrastructure investment by 2040 to extend EV adoption beyond two- and three-wheelers.

India is the Asia-Pacific region’s second-largest car market, but electric-car sales have remained modest and are only now beginning to pick up, the International Energy Agency said in its Global EV Outlook 2026.