Ankara’s Mediterranean Gambit Forces a New Reality in Libya

The ratification follows a calculated internal coup in Benghazi, where Saddam Haftar ousted long-time speaker Aguila Saleh—a key Egyptian ally—to install Al-Salhin Abdelnabi al-Obeidi. This political maneuver, coupled with earlier Turkish military cooperation agreements, suggests a transactional path to power for the younger Haftar. Analysts view the move as a desperate bid to secure Turkish political support for a unified Libyan government, potentially placing Saddam at the helm of the Presidential Council with Ankara’s backing.

For regional stakeholders, the implications are profound. Both Libyan governments now officially endorse Turkey’s claim that Greek islands possess no continental shelf or exclusive economic zone beyond their territorial waters. While this provides Ankara with a potent legal instrument to challenge regional energy projects, oil majors remain wary. International companies are unlikely to risk capital in contested zones where Greece, Egypt, and the European Union contest the boundaries. Despite the legal victory, the immediate result is an elevated risk of naval incidents should exploration creep across the 26th meridian. Meanwhile, Cairo, having lost its primary leverage in eastern Libya, is pivoting toward legal avenues, assembling dossiers with Athens to counter a maritime map that directly threatens its sovereign rights.