U.S. Natural Gas Production Surges to Meet AI and Export Demands

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects dry natural gas production will climb to 112.2 billion cubic feet per day this year, up from 107.64 billion in 2025. This momentum is expected to continue through 2027, reaching 116.13 billion cubic feet per day. The expansion is concentrated in the Permian basin, where gas is recovered alongside oil, and the Haynesville basin, which offers critical proximity to export terminals and industrial hubs.

Consolidation is accelerating as firms attempt to capture this structural growth. EQT Corporation recently announced a merger with Range Resources in an all-stock deal, creating a company with an enterprise value exceeding $50 billion. Analysts suggest this move positions EQT to dominate the supply chain for Appalachian power generation and the burgeoning AI sector. Following the announcement, EQT upwardly revised its 2026 production guidance, citing efficiency gains from compression investments and improved well performance.

Despite the surge in output, the EIA anticipates the Henry Hub spot price will average $3.16 per million British thermal units in 2027, a 9% decline from 2026 levels as new production capacity outpaces export growth. Companies like Expand Energy are already retooling their operations to capitalize on what they describe as a historic shift in market dynamics, ensuring they remain positioned to meet the sustained pull from both domestic industrial users and international markets seeking alternatives to Middle Eastern supply.