The company’s latest annual outlook describes a plateauing of petroleum demand through the 2030s, followed by a gradual contraction. Aurélien Hamelle, the firm’s chief sustainability officer, attributed this shift to a "stunning acceleration" in low-carbon technology adoption observed between the second quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026. This assessment contrasts sharply with the company's previous forecast from November 2025, which had anticipated demand rising to 108 million barrels per day by 2040.
TotalEnergies Shifts Oil Peak Forecast Amid Global Energy Shift
A year after projecting oil demand would climb until 2040, TotalEnergies has pulled its peak outlook forward to the 2035–2040 window. The firm now suggests the ongoing conflict involving Iran and the U.S. may paradoxically act as a catalyst for a faster energy transition than previously anticipated.
Data supports this pivot, as gasoline-only vehicles dropped below half of global new car sales for the first time during the first half of the year. The International Energy Agency expects 23 million electric vehicle sales in 2026, representing nearly 30% of the global market. While the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted tanker traffic, it has also bolstered the bottom line for the French energy giant; third-quarter adjusted net income more than doubled to $9.1 billion, driven largely by record-breaking refining margins.
Comments (0)
No comments yet. Be the first!